If an opportunity arrives at 14:45 with a 75% probablitiy of targeting better than 1% yield, AND a 15% probablity of targeting less than -1% yield, AND a 10% probability of targeting between 1% to -1%, all in less that 1 day time frame, then BUY the security. Cause the expected gain of the opportunity is +0.60. (0.75 X 1 + 0.10 X 0 + 0.15 X -1).