If an opportunity arrives at 11:30 with a 75% probablitiy of targeting better than 1% yield, AND a 15% probablity of targeting less than -4% yield, AND a 10% probability of targeting between 1% to -4%, all in less that 1 day time frame, then SELL /STAY OUT the security. Cause the expected gain of the opportunity is -0.10. (0.75 X 1 + 0.10 X -2.5 + 0.15 X -4).
Posts Tagged ‘prediction’
A “SELL/STAY” example
March 26th, 2010What does it show?
March 26th, 2010It shows a list of trading opportunities based on the listed stocks of the S&P500. Each opportunity delivers:
- Probability of gaining more than a specific positive yield, in less than a specific time frame.
- Probability of lossing more than a specific negative yield, in less that a specific time frame.
- Probablitiy of staying within both yields and reaching the specific time frame.
- Overall expected gain of the opportunity, which is the result of multiplying the probabilities by their respective yields.
A forecast for Norfolk Southern Corp.
January 29th, 2010Norfolk Southern Corp. (Public, NYSE:NSC) has a probability of 80% of rising at least 1% in the next week. This is a prediction from Seoq Panel, January 29 at 1:35 pm.
A new prediction for Avery Dennison Corporation
January 29th, 2010Avery Dennison Corporation (Public, NYSE:AVY) has a probability of 82% of rising at least 1% in the next week. This is a prediction from Seoq Panel, January 29 at 1:35 pm.
A forecast for Union Pacific Corporation
January 29th, 2010Union Pacific Corporation (Public, NYSE:UNP) has a probability of 83% of rising at least 1% in the next week. This is a prediction from Seoq Panel, January 29 at 1:35 pm.
