Posts Tagged ‘prediction’

A “SELL/STAY” example

March 26th, 2010
If an opportunity arrives at 11:30 with a 75% probablitiy of targeting better than 1% yield, AND a 15% probablity of targeting less than -4% yield, AND a 10% probability of targeting between 1% to -4%, all in less that 1 day time frame, then SELL /STAY OUT the security. Cause the expected gain of the opportunity is -0.10. (0.75 X 1 + 0.10 X -2.5 + 0.15 X -4).

What does it show?

March 26th, 2010

It shows a list of trading opportunities based on the listed stocks of the S&P500. Each opportunity delivers:

  • Probability of gaining more than a specific positive yield, in less than a specific time frame.
  • Probability of lossing more than a specific negative yield, in less that a specific time frame.
  • Probablitiy of staying within both yields and reaching the specific time frame.
  • Overall expected gain of the opportunity, which is the result of multiplying the probabilities by their respective yields.

Learn more (tutorial).

A forecast for Norfolk Southern Corp.

January 29th, 2010

Norfolk Southern Corp. (Public, NYSE:NSC) has a probability of 80% of rising at least 1% in the next week. This is a prediction from Seoq Panel, January 29 at 1:35 pm.

A new prediction for Avery Dennison Corporation

January 29th, 2010

Avery Dennison Corporation (Public, NYSE:AVY) has a probability of 82% of rising at least 1% in the next week. This is a prediction from Seoq Panel, January 29 at 1:35 pm.

A forecast for Union Pacific Corporation

January 29th, 2010

Union Pacific Corporation (Public, NYSE:UNP) has a probability of 83% of rising at least 1% in the next week. This is a prediction from Seoq Panel, January 29 at 1:35 pm.