CASE 3:

TICKER: IBM (International Business Machine)

DATE: 080115 (January 15th, 2008)

TIME: 11:55 (11 hours, 55 minutes)

PRICE: 95.18 (american dollars)

WINDOW :<1 H (1 hour or less) PROB (+Y) 0.0588 (6% probability) +YIELD > 1.00 (Positive Target Yield Area)

PROB (-Y): 0.7834 (78% probability)

-YIELD: < -2.00 (Negative Target Yield Area)

PROB (~Y): 0.1578 (16% probability)

~YIELD: 1.00/-2.00 (Inter Target Yield Area)

EST_YIELD: -1.74 (-1.74% Opportunity Expected Yield)

Fact: IBM ticker, on February 7th 2008, at 11:55 hours, is quoting at $95.18 price.

Opportunity: In less than 1 hour, has a 6% probability of over performing 1% yield, a 78% probability of under performing -1% yield, and a 16% probability of performing between 1% and -1% yield. The overall expected yield is -1.74%.

Recommended Action: SELL.